Gold could cross ₹1.80 lakh by Diwali, while global prices remain sensitive to Fed policy
Gold and silver are getting attention again as the festive days near. Buyers and traders are asking if prices can keep climbing. On October 2, 2026, Indian commodity markets are shut for Gandhi Jayanti. Because of that, there is no normal MCX trading on that day. Still, the main talk right now is what might happen by Diwali. Market analyst Ajay Kedia from Kedia Commodities said gold may rise to above ₹1.80 lakh for 10 grams by Diwali, or before the end of 2026. This is his view, not a sure promise. Where prices actually go will depend on factors like global interest rates, changes in currency values, geopolitical events, and how much money people want to put into these metals.
Gold and Silver Rates in the International Market
On October 2, traders kept a close eye on gold and silver overseas. Reuters said spot gold was about $4,181.59 an ounce. It added that U.S. gold futures were near $4,212. Silver was reported at roughly $61.21 per ounce. Gold was set to record a second straight weekly drop. A firmer U.S. dollar was one factor. Higher Treasury yields also added pressure, since gold does not pay interest. In India, prices stayed high too. A market update for October 2 showed benchmark gold at about ₹1,50,540 for 10 grams. Benchmark silver was listed near ₹2,26,570 per kilogram. Retail rates may differ by city, metal purity, taxes, and making charges.
Gold prices draw extra attention for a reason
A big driver is where U.S. interest rates are headed. When bond yields rise, holding gold can look less appealing. Gold itself does not pay interest, so the “missed” yield matters. Bullion traders watch changes in Treasury yields closely. They also track what the Federal Reserve might do next. Reuters noted that the market view on an October rate move cooled fast. The odds were about 26% then, down from roughly 70% earlier. These shifts can move the dollar too, and that can spill over to gold. If people think policy will tighten less, gold may get a lift. Still, other forces can push back against that effect.Middle East tensions are also hitting markets.
Geopolitical uncertainty is still a key driver for precious metals. More conflict risk in the Middle East has put stress on energy markets. It has also added uncertainty for other parts of the global finance world. When this kind of risk goes up, traders tend to watch safe-haven assets like gold more closely. Oil prices can also move inflation expectations. That, in turn, can shift how people think about future interest rates. Bullion prices may change as a result.Can Gold Hit ₹1.80 Lakh?
Ajay Kedia believes gold may rise to or pass ₹1.80 lakh for 10 grams. He links this timing to the Diwali season. He also suggests it could happen by late 2026. A few other articles echo this positive view on gold. They point to several reasons. Central banks are buying gold. Money is also flowing into gold linked investment products. At the same time, worries around world events can support prices. Currency swings may add more pressure in either direction. Even so, these are just forecasts. They are not promises. Gold can move fast when new data comes out from the U.S. Decisions by the Federal Reserve also matter. Treasury yields and the dollar play a role too. Local currency changes can affect what buyers see at home. Global news can shift sentiment quickly. For people planning to buy jewellery during the festive rush, the final cost will not match the headline rate every time. The jewellery price depends on purity. It also includes GST, making charges, and the shop’s margin. So the price you pay can be higher than the bullion figure. As Diwali gets closer, gold and silver price movement will stay in the spotlight. The next few weeks should show if gold can pick up again and head toward the ₹1.80 lakh target mentioned by some analysts.
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